Nigeria’s headline inflation eased marginally to 15.39% in August 2026, dropping from 15.43% in July. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the data, confirming that the country is now experiencing its third consecutive month of disinflation. This latest figure marks a 0.04 percentage-point decline from July and represents a much sharper 7.75 percentage-point drop compared to the 23.14% recorded in August 2025. The easing trend also appears in monthly price growth, which slowed to 0.71% from 1.57% in July. The average inflation rate for the 12 months ending August 2026 stood at 16.30%, down from 28.32% a year earlier, signaling a sustained improvement in price stability over the longer term.
Food and core measures also show moderation
Food inflation fell to 19.57% year-on-year, down from 25.30% in the previous year. On a monthly basis, food inflation dropped to 1.02% from 5.56% in July, a significant reduction. The NBS attributes this to lower prices for commodities like palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, and beef. The specific list of items showing price drops includes cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken, and turkey.
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The slower food-price growth is significant because food remains one of the biggest drivers of household inflation and has a direct impact on consumers’ purchasing power. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 13.29% year-on-year and turned negative on a monthly basis at -0.06%.
However, the data shows a split between urban and rural areas. Urban inflation eased to 15.88% year-on-year, while rural inflation rose to 14.23% in the same period. The rural monthly rate climbed to 1.79% from 0.78% in July, indicating renewed short-term pressure in these regions. The 12-month average for both urban and rural areas has also declined significantly compared to the previous year, with the urban average standing at 16.28% compared to 29.73% in August 2025. The divergence suggests that while urban consumers are seeing more consistent price relief, rural households are facing distinct and renewed monthly upward pressure.
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Market expectations and household impact
Analysts had anticipated a potential rise in August, but the actual figures came in lower than most projections. Prior to the release, a survey by Nairametrics suggested inflation would likely land between 15.3% and 15.94%. Dr. Ayodeji Ebo of MDU Capital predicted 15.6%, while Damilare Asimiyu of FSDH Group forecasted 15.94%. The actual rate of 15.39% falls within the lower end of these estimates. The August figures reinforce the recent downward trend in inflation, with headline, food and core measures all showing significant moderation in their year-on-year rates.
While the general direction of inflation is downward, the cost of living remains high for many. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Inflation Expectations Survey found that 71% of people earning between 150,001 and 250,000 naira perceived inflation as high in July. This perception is supported by income levels, where about three in ten Nigerians earn below 100,000 naira monthly, and 28% report having no income. The pressure is compounded by weak household earnings, as the PiggyVest Savings Report 2025 highlights that 55.6% of those earning N350,001 to N450,000 also perceived inflation as high. Despite the easing numbers, the economic environment continues to strain household finances.