Gemini’s latest earnings release shows the crypto‑focused exchange still grappling with a steep decline in its stock price while betting heavily on prediction markets as its next growth engine.
Quarterly results reveal deep losses
The firm posted a $107.7 million net loss for the second quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly loss since its September 2025 IPO. Revenue rose 37 % year‑on‑year to $45.5 million, beating analyst expectations, but assets on the platform fell 54 % to $8.4 billion as crypto valuations slipped and institutional custody outflows accelerated.
Shares slipped about 6 % in after‑hours trading following the report, after briefly rising 3 % earlier in the session. The stock now trades near $4.06, a drop of more than 90 % from its debut high of $45.89.
Gemini has trimmed roughly a third of its workforce and seen several senior executives depart over the past year. In May, the Winklevoss brothers injected $100 million of personal capital into the firm, a move aimed at shoring up its balance sheet.
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Prediction markets touted as near‑term growth driver
President Cameron Winklevoss described prediction markets as “the largest near‑term growth opportunity on the platform,” pointing to an upcoming sports season as a catalyst. The segment, however, contributed only about $500,000 in Q2 revenue—roughly 1 % of Gemini’s total earnings.
Event contracts have been traded on the platform more than 225 million times since the product launched in December 2025, a 93 % increase quarter‑on‑quarter. Third‑party estimates put cumulative turnover at roughly $24 million as of July, a modest figure compared with rivals such as Kalshi, which reported over $100 billion in notional volume.
Gemini secured a Designated Contract Market licence from the CFTC in December 2025, allowing its Gemini Titan subsidiary to offer event contracts to U.S. customers. In April 2026 the firm added a Derivatives Clearing Organization licence, enabling it to self‑clear its contracts.
While the core exchange revenue remains under pressure, the broader industry faces similar challenges. E‑trade platforms like eToro, Robinhood and Coinbase all reported declining crypto revenue for the quarter.
Gemini framed the past nine months as a period of product rebuilding rather than a direct path to profitability. Management says the aim is to evolve into a “super app for the markets economy,” blending crypto services with newer offerings such as credit cards and prediction markets.
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Next quarter’s report will reveal whether these newer products can grow beyond a marginal revenue line item.
For investors, the juxtaposition of a sizable loss with a modest revenue contribution from prediction markets highlights the uncertainty surrounding the strategy. The focus on expanding into non‑crypto products may diversify the business, but the financial impact remains to be seen.
From a broader perspective, the push into prediction markets reflects a trend where crypto‑centric firms seek alternative revenue streams amid a sluggish digital asset market. If successful, such diversification could help stabilize earnings, but it also requires handling a competitive regulatory environment and convincing users to adopt new product types.
Despite the strong rise in contract trades, the dollar value behind those trades is still limited.