The Paris appeals court cleared Marine Le Pen to run for president again, a ruling overshadowed by other major events. The decision carries significant implications for France and the European Union.
The court reduced her five-year ban on holding office to 45 months, with 30 suspended. This adjustment allows her to campaign in next year’s election, scheduled for April or May. Le Pen announced her candidacy immediately after the ruling.
She has run three times previously, placing second to Emmanuel Macron in both 2017 and 2022. Macron, now in his final term, cannot seek reelection. Current polls show Le Pen leading with approximately 35% support, about 15 points ahead of Édouard Philippe, her closest competitor and a former prime minister under Macron.
Her earlier campaigns included promises to leave the euro and the EU. Those proposals have been abandoned. Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of Le Pen’s National Rally and her chosen successor, now advocates staying in the bloc while reshaping it. In a May interview, he proposed a constitutional referendum to prioritize French law over EU rules on migration and sought a rebate on France’s contribution to the EU budget.
Brussels views Bardella’s plan with concern. Eric Maurice of the European Policy Centre noted that the proposed rebate—worth around two billion euros—would challenge France’s EU commitments. A referendum placing French law above EU treaties would violate existing agreements. While smaller countries like Hungary can be managed through voting or funding restrictions, France holds greater influence as the bloc’s second-largest economy and a founding member. A president intent on obstruction could block decisions requiring unanimity, such as tax harmonization or expansion.
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Le Pen’s stance may be even more rigid than Bardella’s. Analysts at the Carnegie Endowment observed in May that she remains deeply skeptical of the European project, shaped by decades of opposition. Bardella speaks of reform, but Le Pen has spent her career resisting the union.
Financial markets have taken notice. Fund managers like Vanguard and Natixis are avoiding French government debt due to concerns over public finances. The yield difference between French and German ten-year bonds has risen to around 70 basis points since Macron’s 2024 parliamentary election, up from about 50 before. MUFG analysts warned that a Le Pen presidency, particularly with a National Rally majority, could push that spread higher, driven by fears of looser budgets and increased tensions with Brussels.
Philippe remains the centrist most likely to face her in a runoff. France’s two-round voting system has blocked her twice: in 2017 and 2022, voters from opposing sides united behind her opponent in the second round. That coalition has weakened but still exists in parliamentary elections. A Le Pen presidency without a National Rally majority would result in cohabitation with a rival prime minister, likely neutralizing much of her agenda, including conflicts with Brussels.
The possibility of an obstructive presidency is real. The EU has less than a year to respond. So far, preparations appear minimal.
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